王盼盼;石建勋;

• 1:浙江工商大学金融学院
• 2:同济大学经济与管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

基于人民币汇率决定的宏观基本面模型,实证考察经济基本面因子对人民币汇率走势的影响特征,在此基础上分析中美贸易摩擦期间人民币贬值的基本面驱动因素。结果表明:一是人民币汇率变动具有经济基本面支撑,中美贸易顺差和中美经济增速差异是决定人民币汇率走势的两大最重要宏观基本面因子;二是中美贸易摩擦期间人民币持续贬值的根本原因是贸易摩擦加剧和两国经济形势变化所引发的市场效应,是基本面因素驱动下市场自发调整的结果。研究结论为驳斥美国在贸易摩擦期间对中国的汇率操纵指控提供了学理支撑和事实依据。最后就未来美国可能再次发起的"汇率操纵国"指控提出对策。

关键词(KeyWords)： 人民币汇率;经济基本面;汇率操纵国;中美贸易摩擦

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 浙江省哲学社会科学规划重点课题“政策不确定性与资产价格波动:来自中国外汇市场的证据”(21NDJC011Z);; 浙江省自然科学基金项目“人民币汇率市场化进程中的汇率非线性波动机理、影响因素及预测研究”(LQ21G030005)

作者(Author): 王盼盼;石建勋;

Email:

DOI: 10.16537/j.cnki.jynufe.000644

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